LACONIA, N.H. — Steve Shurtleff was at Joe Biden's side in 2019 when he filed papers in the New Hampshire State House to run for president.
He repeatedly trekked across the state with Biden to court primary voters. And when Biden ultimately won the presidency, it was Shurtleff, then the Democratic state House speaker, who proudly sealed the envelope that carried New Hampshire's four electoral votes — including his own name — to the U.S. Senate.
President Joe Biden talks about health care during a visit Feb. 28 to the Kempsville Recreation Center in Virginia Beach, Va.
But on the eve of a new election season, Shurtleff, like a majority of Democrats across the country, feels that one term is enough.
"In my heart of hearts, no," Shurtleff said when asked if he wants Biden to run again. "I think a lot of people just don't want to say it."
Democrats across New Hampshire are upset with the Democratic president for trying to end the state's status as home to the first-in-the-nation presidential primary. But their concerns about Biden run much deeper, in line with a majority of Democratic voters nationwide, who question the 80-year-old president's plans to soon launch his reelection campaign.
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Former Democratic New Hampshire House Speaker Steve Shurtleff, center, listens to then-Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., right, during a campaign stop Aug. 12, 2016, in Concord, N.H. Democrats across New Hampshire are especially upset with President Joe Biden for undermining New Hampshire's status as the first-in-the-nation presidential primary state.
Just 37% of Democrats nationwide want the president to seek a second term, according to a poll released last month by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That was down from 52% in the weeks before last year's midterm elections.
Many worry about Biden's age. Others, like Shurtleff, are upset about the administration's messy withdrawal from Afghanistan. And the party's progressive wing has never been enthusiastic about Biden, who is perceived as a moderate, despite his lengthy list of achievements.
The White House cast Biden's perceived weakness within his own party as an exaggerated narrative that he has repeatedly proven wrong.
"We're aware pundits' attitude toward President Biden is unchanged from before he earned the nomination faster than anyone since 2004, won the most votes in American history, built the strongest legislative record in generations and led the best midterm outcome for a new Democratic president in 60 years," Biden spokesman Andrew Bates said. "Based on comparing the accuracy of our predictions versus theirs, we are happy for this dynamic to continue."
Still, there's a risk of a disconnect between rank-and-file Democrats and the party's establishment. While voters are signaling unease about the prospect of another Biden campaign, Democratic governors, senators and congressional representatives are virtually unanimous in supporting Biden's reelection.
One exception may be New Hampshire, a small swing state whose electoral votes could be critical in a tight general election. The state has challenged Biden before.
Voters here served Biden an embarrassing fifth-place finish in the 2020 Democratic primary. New Hampshire polls were still open when he decamped to South Carolina, where his presidential ambitions were revived by a decisive win. That state is now Biden's pick to lead the 2024 presidential primary calendar.
Interviews with angry New Hampshire Democrats across state government and local Democratic committees suggest there is some appetite for a serious primary challenger in 2024. But top-tier prospects don't seem to be interested.
So far, only Democratic activist and author Marianne Williamson has entered the 2024 primary field. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the son of the late New York senator and known for railing against vaccines, met with New Hampshire voters on Friday. He's also leaning toward a bid.
But the likes of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Biden's fiercest primary challenger in 2020, has vowed to back the president in 2024. So has Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, whose appearance at last year's New Hampshire's Democratic convention still comes up in conversation. California Rep. Ro Khanna, a progressive favorite, has also said he would not challenge Biden, although he has been a vocal advocate for New Hampshire's place atop the primary calendar.
Meanwhile, Biden's allies privately believe the primary dispute will be long forgotten by the time voters cast ballots in November 2024, especially with former President Donald Trump or one of his Republican acolytes on the ballot.
Biden supporters also note that some of the nation's most popular two-term presidents confronted opposition from within their own parties ahead of their reelection.
"We had a lot of work to do, but the fundamentals were there," said Stephanie Cutter, who helped manage Obama's 2012 reelection.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, attributed Biden's political challenges to Democratic leaders who haven't done enough to promote his accomplishments.
"The real disconnect right now is communication," Cooper said in an interview. "President Biden has accomplished in two years what many presidents would only hope to do in eight. His success has meant real wins for working families. People are going to begin to see real improvement in their lives. It's our job to make sure that they know it was President Biden who got it done."
"Democrats came together once before in 2020 to ask him to do a job, and he accomplished it — he beat President Trump," Cooper added. "And now he's gonna do it again."
Despite such optimism, Democrats across New Hampshire believe it will be difficult for Biden to match his 2020 victory of 7 percentage points in the state in 2024. Former Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat, declined to say whether he wanted Biden to seek reelection when asked directly.
Biden's push to change the primary calendar, Lynch said, has created such anti-Biden furor that it puts New Hampshire's four electoral votes at risk in the 2024 general election. He was quick to note that four electoral votes would have tipped the 2000 presidential election in Al Gore's favor.
"It could cost Democrats the presidency," Lynch said. "Republicans won't let voters forget. They'll hammer the Democrats on this."
By the numbers: President Biden at the two-year mark
6.5% annual inflation
6.5%: Annual inflation remains stubbornly high, but is slowly falling after reaching a four-decade high of 9.1% in June.
10.46 million job vacancies
10.46 million: The latest Labor Department figures show more than 10 million job vacancies in the U.S., nearly 1.8 jobs for every unemployed person. Jobless rate at 3.5%, matching a 53-year low. Zero recessions — so far.
$31.38 trillion national debt
$31.38 trillion: The federal debt stood at $27.6 trillion when Biden took office.
$24.2 billion in security aid to Ukraine
$24.2 billion: The amount of U.S. security assistance committed to Ukraine since the Russian invasion nearly 11 months ago.
38: The number of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, committed to send to Ukraine. A gamechanger, allowing Ukrainian forces to fire at Russian targets from far away, then drive away before artillery can target them.
2.38 million migrants stopped at border
2.38 million: For the 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2022, Customs and Border Protection reported stopping migrants at the U.S. border nearly 2.4 million times, a record surge driven by sharp increases in Venezuelans, Cubans and Nicaraguans. The previous high was 1.66 million in 2021.
97 federal judges confirmed
97: Confirmation of Biden's picks to the federal bench, including Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, outpacing the president's two immediate predecessors.
89 pardons and commutations
89: The president has granted nine pardons and 80 commutations, far more than any of his recent predecessors at this point. Donald Trump had granted 11 by this time, George W. Bush seven. Barack Obama didn't take any clemency action in his first two years.
$3.36 average gas price
$3.36: The average price per gallon that American motorists are paying at the pump has fallen since peaking at $5.02 per gallon in June. Motorists were paying a $2.39 per gallon average the week Biden took office.
666 million vaccines administered
666 million: The number of COVID-19 vaccines administered to Americans under Biden. Twenty million had received the jab before Biden took office. The vaccine was not approved until late in Trump's presidency.
15.9%: The percentage of Americans 5 and older who have gotten updated bivalent vaccine.
680,000 COVID-19 deaths
680,000: The recorded death toll from the coronavirus pandemic during Biden's term. The worst pandemic in more than a century had already taken more than 400,000 American lives by Biden's inauguration and has taken 1.1 million total since March 2020.
36 states visited
36: Biden has spread his travel across 36 states (shown here in Pennsylvania) to promote his agenda, but still needs to cross off Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.
197 days in Delaware
197: There's no place like home. The president spent all or part of 197 days in his home state of Delaware, traveling most weekends to either his home near Wilmington or his vacation home at Rehoboth Beach, according to an AP tally. Beyond the weekend visits, he's also made quick trips for funerals, policy events and to cast his ballot in a Democratic primary.
6 chats with Xi
6: Biden has spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping a half-dozen times since the start of his term. All but one of those were phone or video calls. They met in person on the sidelines of a summit in Indonesia in November.
22: The minimum number of times that Biden has publicly lapsed into a nostalgic recollection of an intimate conversation he had with Xi during a visit to China when Biden was vice president. Biden said Xi asked him to define America and he responded with one word: Possibilities. Biden even managed to squeeze in the anecdote during a celebration this week for the NBA champion Golden State Warriors.
21 news conferences
21: Biden held fewer solo or joint news conferences than his three most recent predecessors at the same point in their presidencies.
$1 trillion in infrastructure
$1 trillion:Â The amount allocated for roads, bridges, ports and more in Biden's bipartisan infrastructure legislation, arguably the most significant legislative achievement of his first two years in office.
$40 billion for bridges
$40 billion: The amount in the infrastructure bill dedicated to repair and rebuild the nation's bridges, the single largest dedicated investment in bridges since the construction of the Eisenhower-era interstate highway system.
43,000: The number of bridges in the U.S. rated as poor and needing repair, according to the White House.
1 state dinner
1: The president's lone state dinner to date honored French President Emmanuel Macron. Biden held back on some of the the traditional pomp — and partying — at the White House in the early going of his presidency because of COVID-19 concerns.
0 Cabinet departures
0: Not one of Biden's original Cabinet appointees has left the administration.
A closer look
Taking stock of President Joe Biden's first two years in office compared to his three most recent predecessors.
